{"id":39500,"date":"2021-11-08T07:00:40","date_gmt":"2021-11-08T06:00:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/strtgy.design\/articles\/the-budget-that-is-coming\/"},"modified":"2021-11-08T07:00:40","modified_gmt":"2021-11-08T06:00:40","slug":"the-budget-that-is-coming","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/strtgy.design\/en\/strtgy-notes-en\/the-budget-that-is-coming\/","title":{"rendered":"The budget that is coming"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Hey, happy Monday!<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Welcome to the most useless, wasteful and expensive part of the year: that of the <\/span><b>&#8220;next year&#8217;s budget&#8221;<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For some the process began last month, for others just in these days&#8230;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It is time to measure what has been and predict what will be.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The first part of the sentence is easy. So to speak.   <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">You take the numbers, add them up, and write them down.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The second, the one where you have to make predictions, <\/span><b>is unnecessarily tiring<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Not all of it, just some of it, especially that related to the <\/span><b>turnover forecasts<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. This note discusses why and how you could make better use of that time.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Have you noticed that exactly around this time, the frequency with which the word budget appears in our emails is getting higher and higher? Some recurring patterns: <\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We have to consume the budget<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">There is no more budget<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We are making the budget<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We move it to next year&#8217;s budget<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Let&#8217;s talk about it in January!<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Have I forgotten something? Click   <\/span><a href=\"mailto:ac@strtgy.design\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Answer<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and let me know.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Good work! And remember.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Always Make Progress!<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff48b0;\"><b>\u25cf PROFITS \/ Impossible predictions.<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<h2>The two sides of the budget<\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">There is no problem with budgets, except when they are used as a strategic tool.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">These budgets look a lot like a small budget. They can refer to the entire company or to individual teams, squads, or business units, which are organized as if they were small companies within companies. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In any case, it is always divided into two.  <\/span><b>On the one hand you have the costs.<\/b> <b>On the other, turnover.<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Costs have as many as two advantages:  <\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>\u2780 are the only certain thing;<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>\u2781 depend solely on your decisions.<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If you don&#8217;t change the way you work, deciding to do exactly the things you did the previous year, they are easy to predict. \u2318C+\u2318V. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Turnover, on the other hand, has one major disadvantage: it is out of the control of decision makers.<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Even if you have decided to do exactly the same things, it is impossible to predict. It becomes a commitment, an agreement between gentlemen, a pact with the highest level of the hierarchy. You take the previous year&#8217;s number, add that    <\/span><b>&#8220;a little bit more&#8221;<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and it is written in the table.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Let&#8217;s take an example.<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">  Last year we told the world we would generate $5.4 Billion in revenue. Pandemic scales back, behaviors change, and in November we have to admit that at best we will end the year between $4.4 and $4.8 Billion.   <\/span><b>Who took my $1 B?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This is what happened to <\/span><b>Peloton<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (more in the Insights), <\/span><b>the Netflix of sports-at-home<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, perhaps one of the few companies in the world with margins comparable to Apple. Now that people are going back to the gym and spending more time outside the home it has simply reduced demand \u00af\\_(\u30c4)_\/\u00af <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">When these things happen CEOs copy and paste this response: <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">&#8220;We will be taking concrete steps to reexamine our expense base and adjust our operating costs to better align our investments with our revised growth expectations.&#8221;<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Peloton&#8217;s shares lost more than 30 percent in a single stock market session.<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">I don&#8217;t know anyone who works in Peloton and frankly I don&#8217;t think they are clueless, in fact I think they are among the brightest teams to watch especially right now. The episode, however, simply confirms that <\/span> <b> revenues are out of anyone&#8217;s control<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff48b0;\"><b>\u25cf PROFITS \/ Materialize the numbers.<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<h2>What if we focus only on what can be controlled?<\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">That is, on how the teams decided to make this number materialize. That is, on strategy.   <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If costs are certain then some of the turnover must also have a good confidence threshold.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In December, no one presses a button that says &#8220;RESET,&#8221; and the billing meter starts over again. Some projects will continue into the new year and others will begin, so it is already possible to write down some (fairly) certain numbers. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This is planning, not forecasting.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Another important part of the revenue comes precisely from the business model that allows for recurring revenue, and here please do not confuse installment payments from a subscription!<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Having a recurring revenue stream, allows you to focus on your product rather than simply selling projects because while you are acquiring customers, it is important that those who pay don&#8217;t stop paying!<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Subscriptions are not a solution to everything even though subscription businesses are worth more.  <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">What I want to provoke you about is to stop imagining turnover and invest that time in 4 key actions:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u2780 identify metrics that are the result of actions over which you have control (e.g., the number of bids made, their total value, and their average value are good indicators of potential revenue)<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u2781 extract these metrics, month by month or better yet week by week and identify the bottlenecks and describe what caused them<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u2782 for each bottleneck identify 3 possible solutions to be implemented to solve it<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u2783 do not provide extra costs, instead use those of the activities in Step 2.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In this new way of working you could tie incentives to execution and not to outcome (which is a product of execution).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Let&#8217;s be realistic!  <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It is difficult to make revolution in a day, easier instead to make an experiment.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Still complete the budget you need to do but spend very little time on forecasting and much more on strategy.  <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Immediately lock in the calendar of frequent check-points, like in a video game, unlock new resources if you pass by the checkpoint with the right numbers.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If things work out, it will not be a problem to increase investment.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Conversely, you can change your strategy while there is still time to do so.  <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The problem with budgets is that they are films shot from a single perspective, that of the company, but the lead actor is always the customer! Put him back in the center of the action. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff48b0;\"><b>\u25cf Insights  <\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\ud83d\udeb5\u200d\u2640\ufe0f Peloton is having a hard time.  <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2021\/11\/05\/investing\/peloton-stock-first-quarter-2022-earnings\/index.html\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">CNN Business video commentary<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\ud83c\udfe0 The first time I mentioned Peloton and the <\/span><b>The &#8220;bring-at-home&#8221; wave<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/strtgy.design\/strtgy-notes\/larrivo-del-meteorite\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u21169<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\ud83c\udf1f Here, however, we talk about their <\/span><b>North Star Metric<\/b> <a href=\"https:\/\/strtgy.design\/strtgy-notes\/numeri-in-tempo-reale\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u211652<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\ud83c\udfaf How to bring together <\/span><b>sales objectives and OKRs?<\/b> <a href=\"https:\/\/strtgy.design\/strtgy-notes\/come-far-convivere-obiettivi-di-vendita-e-okrs\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u211686<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\ud83e\udd55 From <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ted.com\/talks\/dan_pink_the_puzzle_of_motivation?language=en\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">TED<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> by Daniel Pink to the literature on the subject, it is clear that <\/span><b>economic incentives do not increase financial performance<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, on the contrary, they may even be dangerous (<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/hbr.org\/1993\/09\/why-incentive-plans-cannot-work\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">HBR<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">).<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>4:48 of reading &#8211; Turnover is impossible to predict. Focus on what can be controlled. Bonuses do not improve results.  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"episode_type":"","audio_file":"","podmotor_file_id":"","podmotor_episode_id":"","cover_image":"","cover_image_id":"","duration":"","filesize":"","filesize_raw":"","date_recorded":"","explicit":"","block":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[97],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-39500","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-strtgy-notes-en"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The budget that is coming - STRTGY<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/strtgy.design\/en\/strtgy-notes-en\/the-budget-that-is-coming\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The budget that is coming - STRTGY\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"4:48 of reading - Turnover is impossible to predict. 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