{"id":44434,"date":"2026-03-23T09:42:35","date_gmt":"2026-03-23T08:42:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/strtgy.design\/articles\/how-to-find-counterintuitive-strategies-that-work\/"},"modified":"2026-03-23T17:47:02","modified_gmt":"2026-03-23T16:47:02","slug":"how-to-find-counterintuitive-strategies-that-work","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/strtgy.design\/en\/strtgy-notes-en\/how-to-find-counterintuitive-strategies-that-work\/","title":{"rendered":"How to Find Counterintuitive Strategies That Work"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
IN VERY BRIEF \u2731 Trends Library 2026.<\/strong> Update coming soon, get LIFETIME access<\/a> to all trends with 17% off with code “trends2026” \u2731 Growth Machine Workshop.<\/strong> 90 minutes to build your company’s growth machine. New dates<\/a> . \u2731 MAKE PROGRESS.<\/strong> Discounted for a limited number of copies<\/a> .<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n
\"\"<\/a>
“They said a four-hundred-page book on business strategy wouldn’t sell in Italy. Today they call it ‘the big yellow book of strategy.'” It’s on sale for a few days, take advantage of it<\/a> .<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n

\u2014\u2014<\/p>\n\n

\n

\u201cIf everyone agrees with your decision, then you haven\u2019t added any value, because they would have made it even without you.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n

Ben Horowitz, The Hard Thing About Hard Things<\/a><\/p>\n\n

\u25cf\u2191<\/p>\n\n

In 2002, two brothers from Texas entered the market with a terrible strategy<\/strong> .<\/p>\n\n

Selling a portable refrigerator for $300.<\/p>\n\n

Not a special refrigerator. Not a refrigerator with artificial intelligence. <\/p>\n\n

A portable refrigerator. The kind you find at the supermarket for $29.99. <\/p>\n\n

The market looked at them as it looks at those who have lost touch with reality.<\/p>\n\n

YETI now has annual revenues of nearly $1.9 billion.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

Other terrible strategies<\/h3>\n\n

Liquid Death<\/strong> sells canned water with skulls and a name that sounds like a metal band. Valuation: $1.4 billion. <\/p>\n\n

Airbnb<\/strong> asked people to let strangers sleep in their beds. At its stock market launch, it was worth more than Hilton, Marriott, and Hyatt combined. Today, it has a market capitalization of over $75 billion. <\/p>\n\n

Red Bull<\/strong> has convinced people to pay more for a smaller can and a drink that tastes like cough syrup.<\/p>\n\n

Southwest<\/strong> has eliminated business passengers from its model.<\/p>\n\n

Each of these companies built their competitive advantage on a strategy that any sane person would consider wrong<\/strong> .<\/p>\n\n

Even in Italy we have terrible strategies that work<\/h3>\n\n

Mario Moretti Polegato’s strategy for Geox<\/strong> : perforate the soles of shoes to let feet breathe. All the manufacturers he proposed the patent to said no. Today: 60 patents, revenue in the hundreds of millions. <\/p>\n\n

Leonardo Del Vecchio’s strategy for Luxottica<\/strong> : to become a subcontractor with a major brand, starting with an eyeglass components workshop in Agordo, a town of 5,000 in the Dolomites. Net worth at death: over $27 billion. <\/p>\n\n

Oscar Farinetti’s strategy for Eataly<\/strong> : create a supermarket where everything costs more because the food is Italian. Today, it has 40 locations worldwide, from Turin to Dubai. <\/p>\n\n

Ernesto Illy’s strategy for Illycaff\u00e8<\/strong> : industrialize single-serve coffee in 1974 with paper pods when everyone had a moka pot. He invented an entire category that is now worth billions. <\/p>\n\n

Pietro Ferrero’s strategy for Ferrero<\/strong> : dilute cocoa with Piedmontese hazelnuts because it was too expensive. This is how he invented Nutella, the world’s best-selling spread. <\/p>\n\n

Enrico Piaggio’s strategy for Vespa<\/strong> : in an Italy that dreamed of automobiles, convert an aircraft factory destroyed by the war into a factory that produced a small, strange scooter.<\/p>\n\n

Massimo Banzi’s strategy for Arduino<\/strong> : open-source hardware from a design school in Ivrea, freely distributed designs, and a seemingly nonexistent business model. Acquired by Qualcomm in 2025. <\/p>\n\n

Miuccia Prada’s strategy for Prada<\/strong> : using parachute fabric to make luxury bags instead of leather. Her nylon bags are now iconic. <\/p>\n\n

Marco Porcaro’s strategy for Cortilia<\/strong> : sell fruit and vegetables online. “Ugly but good” products delivered to your home. <\/p>\n\n

Each of these Italian companies built its competitive advantage on a strategy that seemed absurd<\/strong> .<\/p>\n\n

What does the market \u201cthink\u201d?<\/h3>\n\n

Over the years, I’ve worked with hundreds of entrepreneurs and management teams. I’ve seen strategies discarded before they’ve been tested<\/strong> . <\/p>\n\n

Not because they were weak. Because they sounded too weird to “work.” <\/p>\n\n

The pattern is always the same. You have a hunch. It feels right. Then you filter it by “what would the market say?” and throw it away. <\/p>\n\n

Your company has no shortage of good strategies. But every time you ask yourself, “Does this make sense?”, you’ll throw away the only ones that can create a competitive advantage that will protect you over time. <\/p>\n\n

Everything that makes sense, everyone is already doing.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

How to understand if it might work<\/h3>\n\n

Does your strategy solve a problem people want to solve, in a way that no one is considering because it seems wrong?<\/em><\/p>\n\n

If the answer is yes, you’ve got something.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

Now ask yourself: is it so bad that no competitor would copy it because it \u201cdoesn\u2019t make sense to them\u201d?<\/em><\/p>\n\n

You’ve just found what we at MAKE PROGRESS\u00ae call “sustainable superiority”:<\/strong> something that sets you apart and that others can’t replicate, precisely because they can’t or won’t.<\/p>\n\n

That space between \u201cno one would do that\u201d and \u201cit might work for us\u201d is where low competition and high margins<\/strong> arise.<\/p>\n\n

Not what you were looking for?<\/p>\n\n

3-minute exercise<\/h3>\n\n

Take a sheet of paper.<\/p>\n\n

    \n
  1. Write down the 3 strategies you’ve discarded in the last year because “the market wouldn’t understand them.”<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. Which ones solve a real problem?<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. Which ones are so terrible, that they might work?<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  4. Which one excites you the most?<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  5. Which one can you bring into contact with a small number of customers in the most economical way possible?<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n

    If you feel that not doing it will cost you more than doing it wrong, give yourself a plan:<\/p>\n\n

      \n
    1. Build a test: \u201cif we choose X, we expect Y by Z.\u201d<\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n
    2. Assign a budget, not too small that it fails due to lack of resources, not too large that it becomes a problem if it fails.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    3. Select a handful of metrics to monitor, I wrote a book about this<\/a> (which is now on sale too)<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    4. Set a deadline to figure out whether it makes sense to continue or not.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n

      Having everyone agree is not a good strategy<\/h3>\n\n

      The next time someone tells you, \u201cThis strategy will never work,\u201d stop for a second.<\/p>\n\n

      Not because I’m wrong.<\/p>\n\n

      But that’s exactly what they told Mario Moretti Polegato of Geox, Leonardo Del Vecchio of Luxottica, Enrico Piaggio of Vespa, Miuccia Prada, and Pietro Ferrero of Nutella.<\/p>\n\n

      What’s the strategy you have in your drawer that you keep discarding because it “makes no sense”?<\/p>\n\n

      Reply to any emails you receive from me. I’m curious. <\/p>\n\n

      ALWAYS MAKE PROGRESS \u25cf\u2191<\/p>\n\n

      Antonio<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Why do the best strategies seem wrong? I’ve collected 14 companies that have won with strategies no one would have given a cent to. Includes exercise. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"episode_type":"","audio_file":"","podmotor_file_id":"","podmotor_episode_id":"","cover_image":"","cover_image_id":"","duration":"","filesize":"","filesize_raw":"","date_recorded":"","explicit":"","block":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[97],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44434","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-strtgy-notes-en"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nHow to Find Counterintuitive Strategies That Work - STRTGY<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"From YETI to Nutella: Discover 14 counterintuitive strategies that have created empires. 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